German Mortgage Collapse Getting Worse & Worse
Number of New Mortgage Contracts With Record Contraction, Now Down 36% YoY
Another day, another bad news for the German mortgage market. Just after having published our recent analysis about a record decline of mortgage new business volumes in September based on central bank data, it now seems that October might get even worse.
Since the Corona pandemic, alternative data has been provided by the Federal Statistical Office, which probably essentially evaluates the number of newly concluded mortgages on the basis of SCHUFA inquiries. Although the data are perhaps somewhat less representative, they are reported more promptly and therefore now extend to the end of October.
The annual growth rate of the SCHUFA data turned already negative at the beginning of June. The most recent data point for the week ending 30 of October is, however, down a shocking 36% YoY. This is the largest decline since the start of the data series in 2022. It also indicates a strong deterioration since the beginning of September 2022.