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Mortgages With Horrible November

Number of New Mortgage Contracts With Record Contraction, Down 36% YoY in November

Another day, another bad news for the German mortgage market. Just after having published our recent analysis about a record decline of mortgage new business volumes in October based on central bank data, it now seems that November might get even worse.

Since the Corona pandemic, alternative data has been provided by the Federal Statistical Office, which probably essentially evaluates the number of newly concluded mortgages on the basis of SCHUFA inquiries. Although the data are perhaps somewhat less representative, they are reported more promptly and therefore now extend to the end of November.

The annual growth rate of the SCHUFA data turned already negative at the beginning of June. The most recent data point for November is, however, down a shocking 36% YoY. This is the largest decline since the start of the data series in 2020.
The last data point for calendar week 47, however, shows a decline of ‚only‘ minus 34% YoY after minus 41% YoY of the week before. Whether this indicates a slowing decline or even a trend reversal needs to be seen.

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